Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 0.016843 0.019073 0.021492 0.024312 0.027509 0.031023 0.035180
2025-07-20 0.013492 0.016595 0.020249 0.024876 0.030582 0.037401 0.046181
2025-07-27 0.011742 0.015286 0.019704 0.025626 0.033369 0.043172 0.056562
2025-08-03 0.010166 0.013861 0.018684 0.025456 0.034744 0.047072 0.064746
2025-08-10 0.009018 0.012796 0.017930 0.025435 0.036163 0.051002 0.073189
2025-08-17 0.007966 0.011713 0.016989 0.024983 0.036840 0.053856 0.080278
2025-08-24 0.007313 0.011108 0.016630 0.025278 0.038547 0.058246 0.089917
2025-08-31 0.006639 0.010391 0.016016 0.025099 0.039479 0.061505 0.098076
2025-09-07 0.006242 0.010048 0.015919 0.025675 0.041584 0.066684 0.109648
2025-09-14 0.005588 0.009233 0.015005 0.024853 0.041360 0.068129 0.115262
2025-09-21 0.005121 0.008674 0.014442 0.024537 0.041904 0.070815 0.123118
2025-09-28 0.004626 0.008021 0.013664 0.023779 0.041617 0.072056 0.128553
2025-10-05 0.004462 0.007926 0.013824 0.024661 0.044268 0.078594 0.144020
2025-10-12 0.004261 0.007748 0.013825 0.025264 0.046479 0.084558 0.159034
2025-10-19 0.004101 0.007628 0.013915 0.026025 0.049030 0.091327 0.176146
2025-10-26 0.003821 0.007259 0.013522 0.025853 0.049814 0.094887 0.187441
2025-11-02 0.003588 0.006958 0.013226 0.025832 0.050872 0.099030 0.200226
2025-11-09 0.003320 0.006568 0.012728 0.025372 0.051025 0.101421 0.209688
2025-11-16 0.003168 0.006389 0.012620 0.025671 0.052708 0.106950 0.226064
2025-11-23 0.002973 0.006109 0.012291 0.025490 0.053388 0.110501 0.238594
2025-11-30 0.002875 0.006019 0.012333 0.026075 0.055705 0.117599 0.259358
2025-12-07 0.002641 0.005626 0.011725 0.025240 0.054931 0.118131 0.265762
2025-12-14 0.002476 0.005365 0.011371 0.024919 0.055234 0.120975 0.277567